Publication: A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: unit root tests with gradual change analysis.
Authors
Albaladejo, Isabel, P. ; González Martínez, María Isabel ; Martínez-García, María Pilar
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Publisher
Elsevier
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DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100497
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Description
©<2020>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Journal of Destination Marketing & Management]. To access the final edited and published work see[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100497]
Abstract
The Tourist Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped
growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination.
According to the data on tourist arrivals to Spain from 1946 to 2015, there may have
one or two life cycles (TALCs). We propose to test these hypotheses by unit root tests
with gradual change. Our results confirm that a double S-shaped or bilogistic curve is
the long run equilibrium, so validating the existence of two TALCs in the evolution of
Spanish tourism. Both logistic curves overlap in the late of the 70`s and early 80`s. The
first is characterized by the Spanish tourism boom in the 60's, while the second one
experiences an intense growth during 1995-2007, a period of sustained economic
growth in the world.
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Citation
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management 18, 100497
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