Publication:
Regional business cycle phases in Spain

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Date
2019-06-04
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Authors
Camacho, Maximo ; Pacce, Matias ; Ulloa, Camilo
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Publisher
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Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa
DOI
https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v36i3.2558
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Description
© 2019 The Authors.This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the published version of a published work that appeared in final form in Studies of Applied Economics.
Abstract
We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repeats itself across the different recessions. Typically, earlier signals of national recessions appear in the Islands and Valencia, and are propagated from the periphery to the center. Moreover, north-western regions tend to start the regional recoveries with a significant lag.
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Regional Business Cycles , Synchronization , Time Series
Citation
Studies of Applied Economics Vol. 36, Nº 3, pags. 875-896
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10201/137200
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