Browsing by Subject "Smooth transition"

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    A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: unit root tests with gradual change analysis.
    (Elsevier, 2020) Albaladejo, Isabel, P.; González Martínez, María Isabel; Martínez-García, María Pilar; Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa
    The Tourist Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination. According to the data on tourist arrivals to Spain from 1946 to 2015, there may have one or two life cycles (TALCs). We propose to test these hypotheses by unit root tests with gradual change. Our results confirm that a double S-shaped or bilogistic curve is the long run equilibrium, so validating the existence of two TALCs in the evolution of Spanish tourism. Both logistic curves overlap in the late of the 70`s and early 80`s. The first is characterized by the Spanish tourism boom in the 60's, while the second one experiences an intense growth during 1995-2007, a period of sustained economic growth in the world.