Publication: Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment
Authors
Turco, Marco ; Llasat, Maria-Carmen ; Hardenberg, Jost von ; Provenzale, Antonello
item.page.secondaryauthor
item.page.director
Publisher
publication.page.editor
publication.page.department
DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3
item.page.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Description
©<2014>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
This document is the, Accepted, version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Climatic Change. To access the final edited and published work see: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3
Abstract
We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires
and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain).
By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the
response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of
a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years,
the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire
management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would
have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate e↵ects on fuel structure (i.e. less
favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a
slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios
based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further
improvements in fire management are introduced.
publication.page.subject
Citation
Climatic Change 125(3-4):1-12
item.page.embargo
Collections
Ir a Estadísticas
Este ítem está sujeto a una licencia Creative Commons. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/