Predicting shifts in the climate space of freshwater fishes in Great Britain due to climate change

Ruiz Navarro, Ana

Publication:
Predicting shifts in the climate space of freshwater fishes in Great Britain due to climate change

dc.contributor	Gillingham, Phillipa K.
dc.contributor	Britton, J. Robert
dc.contributor.author	Ruiz Navarro, Ana
dc.contributor.department	Didáctica de las Ciencias Experimentales
dc.date.accessioned	2024-01-30T08:29:50Z
dc.date.available	2024-01-30T08:29:50Z
dc.date.issued	2016
dc.description	©2016. The authors. This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the published version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Biological Conservation. To access the final edited and published work see http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.08.021
dc.description.abstract	The implications of climate change for terrestrial and aquatic taxa are for their dispersal pole-wards and/ or to higher altitudes as they track their climate niches. Here, bioclimatic models are developed to predict how projected climate change scenarios for a northern temperate region (Great Britain) shift the climate spaces (i.e. areas of suitable thermal habitat) for 12 freshwater ﬁshes of the Salmonidae, Percidae, Esocidae and Cyprinidae families. Climate envelope models developed in Biomod2 used the current species' distributions and their relationships with current climatic variables, and projected these onto the BCC-CSM1-1 and HadGEM2-AO climate change scenarios (low and high emissions, 2050 and 2070) in full and no dispersal scenarios. Substantial contractions in climate spaces were predicted for native salmonid ﬁshes, with decreases of up to 78% for Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, with these largely unchanged between the dispersal scenarios. Conversely, for the majority of cyprinid ﬁshes, expansions were predicted, including into northern regions where they are current not present biogeographically. Only under the no dispersal scenarios did their predicted distributions remain the same as their current distributions. For all non-salmonid species, the most important climate variables in the model predictions related to temperature; for salmonids, they were a combination of temperature and shifts in annual mean precipitation. As these predictions suggest that there is potential for considerable alterations to the climate spaces of freshwater ﬁshes in Great Britain during this century then regulatory and mitigation conservation actions should be undertaken to minimise these.	es
dc.format	application/pdf	es
dc.format.extent	10
dc.identifier.citation	Biological Conservation 203 (2016) 33–42
dc.identifier.doi	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.08.021
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10201/138084
dc.language	eng	es
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.relation	The work was supported by a Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship (FP7-PEOPLE-2013-IEF) of the European Commission (Ares(2015)3675806-PIEF-GA-2013-625122).	es
dc.rights.accessRights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.subject	Climate envelope	es
dc.subject	Bioclimate models
dc.subject	Salmonidae
dc.subject	Cyprinidae
dc.subject	Climate warming
dc.title	Predicting shifts in the climate space of freshwater fishes in Great Britain due to climate change	es
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication	es