Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula

Jerez, Sonia; Machado Trigo, Ricardo

Publication:
Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula

dc.contributor.author	Jerez, Sonia
dc.contributor.author	Machado Trigo, Ricardo
dc.contributor.department	Física
dc.date.accessioned	2024-02-05T09:30:26Z
dc.date.available	2024-02-05T09:30:26Z
dc.date.issued	2013
dc.description	Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
dc.description.abstract	The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAND) modes are the three main large-scale circulation patterns driving the climate variability of the Iberian Peninsula. This study assesses their influence in terms of solar (photovoltaic) and wind power generation potential (SP and WP) and evaluates their skill as predictors. For that we use a hindcast regional climate simulation to retrieve the primary meteorological variables involved, surface solar radiation and wind speed. First we identify that the maximum influence of the various modes occurs on the interannual variations of the monthly mean SP and WP series, being generally more relevant in winter. Second we find that in this time-scale and season, SP (WP) varies up to 30% (40%) with respect to the mean climatology between years with opposite phases of the modes, although the strength and the spatial distribution of the signals differ from one month to another. Last, the skill of a multi-linear regression model (MLRM), built using the NAO, EA and SCAND indices, to reconstruct the original wintertime monthly series of SP and WP was investigated. The reconstructed series (when the MLRM is calibrated for each month individually) correlate with the original ones up to 0.8 at the interannual time-scale. Besides, when the modeled series for each individual month are merged to construct an October-to-March monthly series, and after removing the annual cycle in order to account for monthly anomalies, these correlate 0.65 (0.55) with the original SP (WP) series in average. These values remain fairly stable when the calibration and reconstruction periods differ, thus supporting up to a point the predictive potential of the method at the time-scale assessed here.	es
dc.format	application/pdf	es
dc.identifier.citation	Environmental Research Letters, Volume 8 (2013), Number 4
dc.identifier.doi	10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044035
dc.identifier.issn	Electronic 1748-9326
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10201/138591
dc.language	eng	es
dc.relation	Portuguese Science Foundation (FCT) project PEST-OE/CTE/LA0019/2013-FCT	es
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess	es
dc.rights	Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/	*
dc.subject	North Atlantic Oscillation	en
dc.subject	East Atlantic	en
dc.subject	Scandinavian pattern	en
dc.subject	Wind power	en
dc.subject	Solar power	en
dc.subject	Iberian Peninsula	en
dc.title	Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula	es
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication	es