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Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?

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dc.contributor.authorCosta-Font, Joan
dc.contributor.authorVilaplana Prieto, Cristina
dc.contributor.departmentFundamentos del Análisis Económico
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-10T12:41:01Z
dc.date.available2025-01-10T12:41:01Z
dc.date.created2022-07-25
dc.description©The Author(s) 2022. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. This document is the Published version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. To access the final edited and published work see https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09382-zes
dc.description.abstractWe study the formation of biased expectations across domains and examine whether they have a unique infuence on health and fnancial behaviors. Combining individual-level longitudinal, retrospective, and end of life data from several European countries for more than a decade, we estimate the time-varying individual level bias in ‘survival expectations’ (BSE) and compare it to a similar type of bias in the formation of ‘meteorological expectations’ (BME). We exploit the variation across individual’s family history (parental age at death) to evaluate the causal efect of BSE on health and fnancial behaviors, and we compare it to the efect of BME. This allows to investigate whether the BSE efect is due to private information, or another mechanism. We fnd that BSE increases the likelihood of engaging in less risky health and fnancial behaviors. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in BSE reduces the average individual probability of smoking by 48% (and increase the probability of holding retirement accounts by 69%). In contrast, BME has little efect on healthy behaviors, and is only associated with a change in some fnancial behaviors.es
dc.formatapplication/pdfes
dc.format.extent33es
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Risk and Uncertainty (2022) 65:285–317
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09382-z
dc.identifier.issnPrint: 0895-5646
dc.identifier.issnElectronic: 1573-0476
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10201/148250
dc.languageenges
dc.publisherSpringeres
dc.relationSpain’s Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (MICINN) and the ERDF financial support: ECO2017-83668-R, PID2020-114231RB-I00 and RTI2018-095256-BI00es
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-022-09382-z
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses
dc.rightsAtribución 4.0 Internacional*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectBiased expectationses
dc.subjectSurvival expectationses
dc.subjectMeteorological expectationses
dc.subjectLongevity optimismes
dc.subjectPrivate informationes
dc.subjectHealth behaviourses
dc.subjectFinancial behaviourses
dc.titleBiased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?es
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees
dspace.entity.typePublicationes
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