Publication:
Tourism and GDP short-run causality revisited: a Symbolic Transfer Entropy approach

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Date
2021-10-04
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Authors
Camacho, Maximo ; Romeu, Andres
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Publisher
SAGE Publications
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Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211045756
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Description
© 2021. This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the submitted version of a published work that appeared in final form in Tourism Economics.
Abstract
We employ a symbolic transfer entropy panel data test in a large-scale data set to provide new insights on the worldwide short-term causality relations between growth and inbound tourists. Using a large data set on 145 countries from the World Bank Open Data website, we show that, despite the evidently strong correlation between these two magnitudes, claiming that the increases in inbound tourists Granger-cause positive shocks in GDP is not supported by the data. By contrast, the data seem to point out in the direction of a reverse causality in that it is GDP growth what drives international inbound tourists in the short run.
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Transfer entropy causality test , Tourism-led growth hypothesis , Longitudinal data
Citation
Tourism Economics, 29(1), pp 235-247
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10201/137199
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