Publication:
Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections

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dc.archivorevisadoRegional Climate Modelingen
dc.contributor.authorTurco, Marco
dc.contributor.authorSanna, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorHerrera, Sixto
dc.contributor.authorLlasat, Maria-Carmen
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez, José Manuel
dc.contributor.departmentFísica
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-08T07:42:57Z
dc.date.available2024-02-08T07:42:57Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.description©2013. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the Accepted version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Climatic Change. To access the final edited and published work see https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or “delta”, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections.es
dc.formatapplication/pdfes
dc.format.extent12
dc.identifier.citationClimatic Change, 120
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
dc.identifier.issnPrint: 0165-0009
dc.identifier.issnElectronic: 1573-1480
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10201/138939
dc.languageenges
dc.relationThis work was supported by esTcena (Exp. 200800050084078) and EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) projects, from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2008–2011.es
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectRCM-GCM coupling uncertaintyen
dc.titleLarge biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projectionses
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees
dspace.entity.typePublicationes
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