Publication: Consecuencias del cambio climático en la disponibilidad de agua en el Sureste de la Península Ibérica. Evaluación del modelo hidrológico INVEST en escenarios futuros
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Pérez Cutillas, Pedro
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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Abstract
El sureste de la Península Ibérica se caracteriza por una secular escasez de agua, cada vez más agravada por los efectos del cambio climático. Para valorar sus consecuencias, se elaboró un análisis combinado de 30 cuencas mediante el modelo hidrológico del programa de evaluación de servicios ecosistémicos InVEST. La metodología empleada se basó en escenarios de concentración de gases de efecto invernadero, representados en niveles de fuerza de radiación de condición intermedia (RCP4.5) y extrema(RCP8.5); y
proyectados para dos periodos, a corto plazo (2020-2050) y medio plazo (2070-2100). Los resultados
mostraron unas tendencias de cambio en los escenarios analizados, con descensos promedio respecto a los registros actuales del 15% en precipitación, y aumentos promedio del 5% en la evapotranspiración
de referencia. La reducción en la disponibilidad hídrica de las cuencas, proporcionaron tasas de variación negativas entre el 30 y 50% para los escenarios más posibilistas (RCP45 2050 y RCP45 2100).
Los efectos en la disminución de los recursos hídricos debidos al cambio climático son evidentes, siendo necesarias soluciones urgentes relacionadas con la gestión del agua y sus demandas futuras.
Water scarcity characterizes the environments of the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, and it is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. An analysis of 30 basins was perform to assess their consequences through the hydrological model of the ecosystem services assessment InVEST. Scenarios of concentration of greenhouse gases were used, that represent intermediate and extreme conditions in the level of radiative forcing values (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), projected for two periods, short term (2020-2050) and medium term (2070-2100). In the analyzed scenarios, the results indicated some trends of change, showing average decreases of 15% in precipitation, and average increases of 5% in potential evapotranspiration, regarding current values. Water yield showed a decrease, with negative variation rates between 30 and 50% for the most realistic scenarios (RCP45 2050 and RCP45 2100). The effects on the decrease of water resources due to climate change are visible, therefore solutions related to water management and future services will be demanded.
Water scarcity characterizes the environments of the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, and it is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. An analysis of 30 basins was perform to assess their consequences through the hydrological model of the ecosystem services assessment InVEST. Scenarios of concentration of greenhouse gases were used, that represent intermediate and extreme conditions in the level of radiative forcing values (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), projected for two periods, short term (2020-2050) and medium term (2070-2100). In the analyzed scenarios, the results indicated some trends of change, showing average decreases of 15% in precipitation, and average increases of 5% in potential evapotranspiration, regarding current values. Water yield showed a decrease, with negative variation rates between 30 and 50% for the most realistic scenarios (RCP45 2050 and RCP45 2100). The effects on the decrease of water resources due to climate change are visible, therefore solutions related to water management and future services will be demanded.
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