The Post-Stagnation Stage for Mature Tourism Areas: a Mathematical Modelling Process

Albaladejo Pina, Isabel; Martínez-García, María Pilar

Publication:
The Post-Stagnation Stage for Mature Tourism Areas: a Mathematical Modelling Process

dc.contributor.author	Albaladejo Pina, Isabel
dc.contributor.author	Martínez-García, María Pilar
dc.contributor.department	Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa
dc.date.accessioned	2018-10-25T17:54:11Z
dc.date.available	2018-10-25T17:54:11Z
dc.date.created	2017
dc.date.issued	2017
dc.description.abstract	The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model by Butler (1980) explains the temporal evolution of a tourism resort. Lundtorp and Wanhill (2001) find that the logistic growth model represents the first phases of the TALC model. However, since the logistic model assumes a fixed tourism market ceiling, it fails to explain the post-stagnation stage, where rejuvenation, decline or any other intermediate possibility may arise. Taking into account the data of passenger flows to Bornholm from 1912 to 2001 collected by Lundtorp and Wanhill, we find that the superposition of several logistic growth models fits better with these data.Then, we propose a multi-logistic growth model, where the investment or innovation in the tourism sector boosts the addition of new logistic curves which superpose the old ones. The continuous birth and superposition of these new life cycles is not free, it requires purposive effort of entrepreneurs and governments seeking new markets and the improvement of infrastructures	es
dc.format	application/pdf	es
dc.format.extent	29
dc.identifier.citation	Tourism Economics, 23(2), 387-402. 2017
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0533
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10201/62599
dc.language	eng	es
dc.relation.publisherversion	http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.5367/te.2015.0533	es
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess	es
dc.subject	Tourism Area Life-Cycle model	es
dc.subject	Innovation	es
dc.subject	Logistic growth	es
dc.title	The Post-Stagnation Stage for Mature Tourism Areas: a Mathematical Modelling Process	es
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication	es