Publication: Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models
Authors
Turco, Marco ; Rosa-Cánovas, Juan José ; Bedia, Joaquín ; Jerez, Sonia ; Montávez, Juan Pedro ; Llasat, Maria-Carmen ; Provenzale, Antonello
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Publisher
Nature Research
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DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Description
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
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© The Author(s) 2018
Abstract
The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to
continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an
assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still
missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europe under 1.5, 2,
and 3 °C global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications of climate-fire
relationships under changed climatic conditions owing to productivity alterations. We found
that such modifications could be beneficial, roughly halving the fire-intensifying signals. In
any case, the burned area is robustly projected to increase. The higher the warming level is,
the larger is the increase of burned area, ranging from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios.
Our results indicate that significant benefits would be obtained if warming were limited to
well below 2 °C.
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Citation
Nature Communications 9, 3821 (2018)
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