Browsing by Subject "Trend"
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- PublicationEmbargoAnalysis of the evolution of protected horticulture in Almeria Area: cycles, structure and growth(International Society for Horticultural Science (ISHS), 2001) Martínez-Paz, José M.; Martínez-Carrasco Pleite, Federico; Dios-Palomares, R.; Economía AplicadaAlmería province is nowadays one of the most important production locations of vegetables in Europe. Its around thirty thousand hectares of greenhouses make this area one of the main supply locations for some of the early season produce. This work analyses the importance that horticultural production has in the economy of this province, in absolute and relative terms, carrying out a comparative analysis of structure and evolution of the sector in comparison with the rest of Spain. Then follows an analysis of the changes experienced by the sector as for their productive specialisation. To this respect, the present work proposes a study, applying the methodology proposed by Hodrick-Prescott (1997), about the historical evolution of the production of the vegetables in which Almería is specialised, therefore analysing the tendencies and cycles in the production series of the last two decades. Besides, with the estimate of log-lineal models we are able to define what have been the growth and the structure along that same period. Finally, as summary of these analyses, some conclusions on the trend, cycle and pattern of growth of the horticultural sector at Almería are drawn.
- PublicationOpen AccessModelación de escenarios de recarga del acuífero en el Parque Otomí Mexica, México (2014 - 2025).(Universidad de Murcia, Servicio de Publicaciones., 2025) Reza Curiel, Brenda Yazmin; García Ávila, Martín; Estévez Pedraza, Ángel Gabriel; Gutiérrez Cedillo, Jesús Gastón; Sin departamento asociadoLa presente investigación tiene como objetivo la modelación de escenarios de recarga del acuífero en el Parque Otomí Mexica 2014 – 2025. La recarga del acuífero es importe para la preservación del Área Natural Protegida y para la población. Metodología: 1) Clasificación y tipificación de la modelación de escenarios de recarga del acuífero 2014 – 2025; 2) Fotointerpretación cartográfica y cuantificación de la modelación de escenarios de la recarga del acuífero; 3) Selección, regresión y estimación curvilínea para la serie de tiempo a partir del año 2014; 4) Selección de variable dependiente y modelos para la recarga del acuífero; 5) Modelación de series temporales a 2025; 6) Estimación de la precipitación y temperatura, por medio del método de interpolación IDW /Kriging; 7) Estimación del volumen de evapotranspiración; 8) Series temporales y validación, se realizó la validación fuera de la muestra y diagnóstico de residuos. Los resultados muestran que el escenario que prevalece en las precipitación pluvial y temperatura media anual es tendencial óptimo, indica que aumentará para los próximos 4 años. Mientras que la tendencia de evapotranspiración también aumentará para los próximos 4 años, sobre todo en los espacios localizados al noreste del parque y al suroste del área de estudio.
- PublicationOpen AccessPartial contributions and temporal trends of leading causes of death during the last four decades in Spain(Elsevier, 2020-12) Cirera, L; Márquez-Calderón, S; Saez, M; Salmerón, D; Ballesta Ruiz, Mónica; Chirlaque López, María Dolores; Ciencias SociosanitariasObjectives: The study was conducted to assess time trend shifts of leading causes of death and their partial contributions over the years 1975-2016 in Spain. Study design: A longitudinal ecological epidemiologic design was conducted to analyse linear trend period shifts using joinpoint regression as the annual percentage of change (APC) in the period 1975-2016. The partial contributions were illustrated as the rate ratio of a singular-cause to their major-cause shift periods. Results: HIV/AIDS shaped the increasing trend period of infectious diseases in 1989-1995 (APC = 25.3, P < 0.05) and the decreasing trend in 1995-1999 and 1999-2016. Lung cancer fell gradually from 1994 in men (-0.4, P < 0.05); however, in women, the condition continued increasing from 1990 (P < 0.05). Dementia types influenced mental and neurological disease drifts. The recent trend for circulatory periods (1980-2016) was mainly modulated by cardiac ischaemia, with increased partial contributions (25%, 32% and 30%). Traffic accidents defined the descending tendency of external causes. Conclusions: Spain showed a Western pattern in descended rates, including non-decreasing trends in mental and neurological diseases, pancreatic cancer, drug abuse and suicide. Trend shifts and partial contributions illustrated targets for further mortality reduction.
- PublicationRestrictedPartial contributions and temporal trends of leading causes of death during the last four decades in Spain(Elsevier, 2020-12) Cirera, Lluís; Márquez Calderón, S.; Ballesta Ruiz, Mónica; Chirlaque López, María Dolores; Sáez, Marc; Salmerón Martínez, Diego; Mortality working group of the Spanish Epidemiological Association; Ciencias Sociosanitarias; Facultades de la UMU::Facultad de EnfermeríaObjectives The study was conducted to assess time trend shifts of leading causes of death and their partial contributions over the years 1975–2016 in Spain. Study design A longitudinal ecological epidemiologic design was conducted to analyse linear trend period shifts using joinpoint regression as the annual percentage of change (APC) in the period 1975–2016. The partial contributions were illustrated as the rate ratio of a singular-cause to their major-cause shift periods. Results HIV/AIDS shaped the increasing trend period of infectious diseases in 1989–1995 (APC = 25.3, P < 0.05) and the decreasing trend in 1995–1999 and 1999–2016. Lung cancer fell gradually from 1994 in men (−0.4, P < 0.05); however, in women, the condition continued increasing from 1990 (P < 0.05). Dementia types influenced mental and neurological disease drifts. The recent trend for circulatory periods (1980–2016) was mainly modulated by cardiac ischaemia, with increased partial contributions (25%, 32% and 30%). Traffic accidents defined the descending tendency of external causes. Conclusions Spain showed a Western pattern in descended rates, including non-decreasing trends in mental and neurological diseases, pancreatic cancer, drug abuse and suicide. Trend shifts and partial contributions illustrated targets for further mortality reduction.
- PublicationOpen AccessTime trends and geographical variations in mortality due to suicide and causes of undetermined intent in Spain, 1991-2008(Oxford University Press, 2013-01-04) Salmerón, D.; Cirera, L.; Navarro-Mateu, F.; Ballesta Ruiz, Mónica; Ciencias SociosanitariasBackground This study analyses the trends, geographical variations, seasonal patterns and methods of mortality due to the combination of suicide and causes of undetermined intent in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Methods. Age-adjusted suicide rates were calculated. Poisson models were used to estimate rate ratios and annual percentage changes. Results. Suicide rates decreased in all age groups with the exception of the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups. There were important geographic variations in suicide rates. Spring and summer were the seasons with the highest suicide rates. Suicide rates for hanging decreased, although the rates increased in the 35–44 age group of males. A significant upward trend in suicide by jumping was observed for males aged 15–54 and for females aged 25–64. There were almost no differences when the deaths of undetermined intent were excluded. Conclusions. Suicide rates decreased in both males and females, although the downward trend was not observed in males and females aged 35–44 or in females in the 45–54 age group. A significant upward trend in suicide rates for jumping was observed in some age groups. Substantial geographical variations in suicide rates were observed. The highest rates were observed in the warmest months.