Browsing by Subject "Quantile regression"

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    Government bonds and COVID-19. An international evaluation under different market states
    (SAGE Publications, 2023) Jareño, Francisco; Martínez Serna, María Isabel; Chicharro, María; Organización de Empresas y Finanzas; Facultades, Departamentos, Servicios y Escuelas::Departamentos de la UMU::Organización de Empresas y Finanzas
    This study evaluates the sensitivity of government bond yields from the countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic to variations in some international risk factors during the period between January 2020 and April 2021. This sample period allows us to focus the study on the first, and the subsequent waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we propose an extended risk factor model estimated using the quantile regression approach. In addition, this study compares the COVID-19 pandemic period with a pre-pandemic and a post-vaccination period. Interesting differences among them are observed, remarking that gold is the key risk factor during the pandemic, whereas VIX and crude oil play that role in the pre-pandemic and the post-vaccination periods, respectively, mainly for bearish states. As expected, the explanatory power of the model is better at extreme quantiles, showing relevant differences between sensitivities, because the found effects are quantile-, country- and risk factor-dependent. The results during the pandemic are robust to the inclusion of a country-specific factor and a factor accounting for the mutual influence of the government bonds.
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    Reassessing the link between firm size and exports
    (Springer, 2020-06) Hernández Martínez, Pedro Jesús; Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
    This paper re-examines the link between firm size and exports. The new theories of international trade emphasize firm heterogeneity as the theoretical basis of export behavior. In the context of this heterogeneity, this paper uses the quantile regression methodology to analyze the effects of firm size on firm export propensity (percentage of exported sales). The paper confirms the existence of a positive relationship between firm size and export propensity but finds that the conventional estimates of the elasticity of export propensity with respect to firm size on the average of the export propensities’ distribution underestimate the effect at the bottom of the distribution and overestimate the effect on the rest. Consequently, policies aimed at increasing exports should focus their efforts on increasing the size of those firms with a lower export propensity.