Browsing by Subject "Predicción"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
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    A review of the limitations of financial failure prediction research
    (Universidad de Murcia, Servicio de Publicaciones, 2023) Laitinen, Erkki K.; Camacho-Miñano, María-del-Mar; Muñoz-Izquierdo, Nora
    The objective of this paper is to critically evaluate the main weaknesses associated with the limitations of financial failure prediction research studies. For more than 80 years, researchers have unsuccessfully studied ways to create a general theory of financial failure, which is useful for prediction. In this paper, we review the main boundaries of failure prediction research through a critical evaluation of previous papers and our own approach from the research experience. Our findings corroborate that these studies suffer from a lack of theoretical and dynamic research, an unclear definition of failure, deficiencies with the quality of financial statement data and a shortfall in the diagnostic analyses of failure. The most relevant implications for future research in this area are also outlined. This is the first study to analyse in deep the caveats of financial failure prediction studies, a crucial topic nowadays due to the hints of an economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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    Open Access
    Modelos de predicción para el sector turístico andaluz mediante métodos estadísticos avanzados
    (Universidad de Murcia. Servicio de publicaciones, 2021) Sánchez Sánchez, Francisca J.; Sánchez Sánchez, Ana M.
    En el trabajo se modeliza la serie temporal “turistas que visitan Andalucía”, variable que presenta una fuerte componente estacional. Se plantea y analiza la capacidad predictiva de tres modelos diferentes, aplicando distintas metodologías de modelización (Box-Jenkins, Holt-Winters y métodos combinados). Se comparan los resultados obtenidos de las predicciones con los valores reales de la serie de turismo, valorándose la buena capacidad predictiva de las tres metodologías empleadas. Se comprueba que el procedimiento clásico de Holt-Winters es el que ofrece mejores resultados predictivos.